Morgan Stanley Initiates Adani Enterprises With ‘Overweight’; Sees Ebitda Tripling By FY30

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Adani Enterprises with an “Overweight” rating and a target price of Rs 3,638, describing the flagship Adani Group company as “India’s premier incubator” with exposure to several long-term structural growth themes.

The global brokerage said Adani Enterprises is well positioned to benefit from India’s expanding infrastructure, energy transition, digital infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, calling the company “anchored to the New India.”

According to Morgan Stanley, fiscal year 2027 will mark a major earnings inflection for the company as several large projects begin contributing meaningfully to profits. Key triggers include the commissioning of the Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA), commencement of tolling on the Ganga Expressway, higher utilisation at its copper smelting plant, and capacity expansion in the new energy business.

The brokerage believes Adani Enterprises’ earnings quality is improving as its business mix shifts away from commodity-linked operations such as integrated resource management and mining towards regulated infrastructure assets, digital infrastructure and manufacturing businesses, including airports, roads, data centres, green energy equipment, copper, defence and PVC.

Morgan Stanley forecasts revenue and Ebitda to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 19% and 32%, respectively, between fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2030. It expects Ebitda to nearly triple over the period, rising from around Rs 14,000 crore in fiscal year 2026 to approximately Rs 42,300 crore by fiscal year 2030.

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The brokerage expects the airports business to deliver a 29% Ebitda CAGR, supported by rising passenger traffic, higher non-aeronautical revenues and monetisation of city-side developments. It also projects an 18% Ebitda CAGR for the new energy business and a 45% CAGR for the primary industries segment.

Separately, Morgan Stanley expects the company’s data centre joint venture to post an Ebitda CAGR of around 160% over the forecast period as digital infrastructure demand accelerates.

By fiscal year 2030, the brokerage expects Adani Enterprises to handle around 145 million passengers annually across its airport portfolio. It also forecasts the company to build a 2GW data centre portfolio through its joint venture, alongside continued expansion in its new energy and manufacturing businesses.

Morgan Stanley highlighted Adani Enterprises’ long-standing business model of incubating new businesses, scaling them, monetising mature assets and recycling capital into new growth opportunities. Since its listing in 1994, the company has delivered a market capitalisation CAGR of about 30%, outperforming the Nifty by 21 percentage points, according to the brokerage.

(Disclaimer: New Delhi Television is a subsidiary of AMG Media Networks Limited, an Adani Group Company.)

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