Published on 6/18/2026
Goldman Sachs Bank expected that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would recover to only about 70% of their pre-war levels, at a time when oil and gas ships began crossing the sea lane after the temporary US-Iranian agreement entered into force.
The bank’s analysts, including Yulia Zhistkova Grigsby, said in a note yesterday, Wednesday, that the return of Arab Gulf exports to levels that the market considers normal may be achieved by increasing Hormuz flows by 13 million barrels per day from current levels.
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Goldman Sachs analysts added that the expected increase in shipments may be completed by the end of next month, with Arabian Gulf production likely recovering by October.
About 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, according to the International Energy Agency.
The global oil market is awaiting navigation movement in the strait, which connects the Arabian Gulf to global markets, after the United States and Iran signed a temporary agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran and reopen the vital sea corridor.
During the war, crude shipments through the Strait fell to very limited levels after Tehran and Washington imposed a double blockade that choked most traffic, which pushed oil prices to rise strongly at first before they later declined.
Brent crude futures, the global oil standard, fell below $78 per barrel in Thursday’s trading, compared to a peak of more than $126 in late April under the pressure of the war.
Limited movement
Ship tracking data showed that a loaded liquefied natural gas tanker and an empty oil products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with traders monitoring indicators of the return of movement through the sea lane after the US-Iranian agreement.
The tanker Yi Qi indicated Chinese ownership, in a way that has become common among ships highlighting their affiliation with countries that have good relations with Iran, while traffic through the strait remained light except for the passage of smaller cargo ships early Thursday.
This came hours after US President Donald Trump announced that he had signed an agreement with Iran that included a rapid reopening of the vital sea lane, while shipowners were requesting clarity about the reopening mechanism before making a decision to send their ships through the strait.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for about 4 months restricted access to gas and oil from within the Arabian Gulf, with only limited shipments passing through ships whose transmitters were turned off to hide their locations, or through ships that obtained approval from Tehran.
Hormuz alternatives
During the war, regional producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, increased their use of infrastructure bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to maintain vital energy flows to global customers.
Saudi Aramco increased the use of a pipeline crossing the country to transport crude to the Red Sea coast, and the UAE used a pipeline to the port of Fujairah, located outside Hormuz, while Iraq sent oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimated the currently visible flows through Hormuz at about 1.3 million barrels per day, in addition to 1.6 million barrels per day from the Gulf of Oman that may be linked to unseen crossings, while 7.5 million barrels per day pass through the ports of Yanbu, Fujairah and Ceyhan.
Goldman Sachs does not expect the availability of ships to be a constraint on the recovery of flows, with empty tanker capacity of about 860 million barrels in the strait or within a navigation range that does not exceed 5 days, but the bank indicated that some shipowners may remain reluctant to send their ships through the passage.
