Published On 1/5/2026
In just 24 hours, the relationship between Madagascar and France went from the height of tension to an attempt at immediate containment, following the case of the detention of a former French military man in Antananarivo on charges of involvement in a “destabilization plot.” Between Tuesday evening and last Wednesday evening, successive political decisions and diplomatic communications revealed the fragility of the relationship between the former colonial power and the new transitional authority, 6 months after the October 2025 coup.
The Deputy Public Prosecutor announced in a video statement on Tuesday evening that former French soldier Guy Barré had been placed in pretrial detention in the high-security Tsiafahi prison, on charges that include “spreading false information with the aim of disrupting public order, and conspiring to sabotage the infrastructure,” especially the power lines and thermal stations belonging to the public company “Gerama.”
According to Reuters, the plan was to incite security forces to rebel and cause comprehensive power outages, while the implementation date was set for April 18, according to the same source. The authorities based their investigation on a WhatsApp group called “The Revolution of Brave Citizens,” according to what the agency reported. The Malagasy army officer, Colonel Patrick Rakotomamonji, was also referred to investigation as an accomplice in the case.
On the same day, Malagasy Foreign Minister Alice Ndiaye summoned the French Ambassador, Arnaud Guiwa, to inform him that one of the embassy employees – according to the newspaper “Midi Madagascar” – a former colonel in the French army, had become an “undesirable person.” Paris quickly reciprocated the move, summoning the Chargé d’Affaires of the Malagasy Embassy to protest “strongly”, and confirmed – through a Foreign Ministry spokesman – that it “categorically rejects any accusation of destabilizing the re-establishment regime in the Republic of Madagascar,” describing the accusations as “baseless and incomprehensible.”
“Containment” phase
However, the diplomatic track witnessed a remarkable shift. The Malagasy presidency announced on Wednesday evening that interim President Michel Randrianirina held a phone call with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, in which both parties described the incident as an “isolated act,” emphasizing “making the necessary efforts so that this incident does not affect the dynamic of cooperation between the two countries,” and agreeing that “betting on mutual trust is the path to building a lasting partnership.”
According to the Madagascar Tribune newspaper, the Malagasy presidency’s statement reflected a “clear retreat” from the sharp tone that had been set hours earlier, as the authority took refuge in the “normal exercise of sovereignty”, but at the same time relied on the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations – according to what was reported by the French newspaper La Nouvelle Tribune – which allows the expulsion of a diplomat without an official justification.
Observers have read in the tone of the rapid containment an impact of French economic pressures, especially since Paris remains – according to the “Pravda” agency – the largest bilateral donor to Madagascar with about 80 million dollars in sanitation, food security and judicial reform programs.
Direction east
The crisis comes in the context of accumulated tension since October 12, 2025, when the elite CABSAT unit overthrew President Andry Rajoelina, who fled – according to Reuters – on board a French military plane following an agreement with Macron, a file that many Malagasy consider “collusion” that tarnishes the image of Paris. Since then, the new foreign policy has witnessed a clear eastern turn.
On February 19, 2026, Randrianirina chose Moscow as the destination for his first trip outside the continent, where he met President Vladimir Putin, before meeting Macron in Paris five days later. Moscow preceded this on December 20, 2025, by sending a military plane to Antananarivo carrying 40 soldiers and 43 boxes of weapons, including assault rifles, snipers, and anti-tank launchers, according to the head of the Malagasy National Assembly, Cetinje Randrianazoloniako, to Bloomberg.
Defense Web, which is interested in African defense affairs, also indicated that the African Legion (the former African branch of Wagner) offered personal protection to Randrianirina, in exchange for what were likely to be mining contracts in graphite (Madagascar is the second global producer with 89,000 tons annually) and cobalt. Randrianirina announced in an interview with Sky News his intention to seek BRICS membership.
Open wounds
The Baré case confirms that the relationship between Antananarivo and Paris is walking on a minefield, as any arrest of a French citizen, and any memorandum expelling a diplomat, is enough to launch a diplomatic spiral that requires direct presidential telephone intervention to contain it.
But what the calls do not end is what they reveal, as the relationship between the Grand Island and its former colonizer is no longer governed by the old “Francophone intimacy,” but rather fragile balances that awaken with every shock. Are we entering the stage of a “permanent tense relationship” that both parties manage with caution, similar to what Paris is experiencing with some of its old colonies? Or is the Guy Barré case merely a prelude to a deeper rupture that will be imposed by a later political moment?
Source: The island + African press + French press
