Published on 6/16/2026
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Last update: 08:47 (Mecca time)
Israeli security sources warned of the worsening state of frustration within the military and intelligence establishment, in light of what they described as the inability of the political level to translate the harsh strikes suffered by Hezbollah into a qualitative political achievement, in conjunction with the anticipation of an imminent agreement with Iran, and the continued fragility of the situation in Lebanon.
According to security estimates, the security services – including the Israeli army, the Shin Bet, and the Mossad – have exhausted their energies, and have performed beyond what is required across the various battlefields of confrontation since October 7, 2023, starting from Gaza and the West Bank, through Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, all the way to Iran.
However, assessments indicate that the political leadership has failed to invest these gains militarily at the strategic level, amid accusations that it is in a state of paralysis and losing the ability to make decisive decisions.
Lebanon: a wasted strategic opportunity
Security sources place the Lebanon file at the forefront of what they see as a remarkable political failure, as they indicate that Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses affecting its leadership and military structure, with thousands of deaths and injuries, in addition to financial hardship and a decline in field control in the south of the country, in addition to the diminishing level of popular support internally and increasing pressure on it from the Syrian side.
On the other hand, the Lebanese government showed – according to the same estimates – a willingness to firmly advance a direct negotiating path with Israel, in light of the limited fundamental differences, which would have made it possible to reach an agreement soon.
But the Israeli political performance in this regard was described as confused. Instead of the Israeli negotiating delegation being headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, or any of the prominent ministers, the government sent the ambassador to Washington and an officer with the rank of brigadier general to manage the negotiations, which security sources considered a negative message that reduces Israel’s seriousness and weakens its negotiating position regionally.
These circles believe that the absence of a senior political presence in the negotiations not only led to a waste of momentum, but also paved the way for Iran to enhance its role through its channels with the United States, thus reshaping the balances in the Lebanese arena in a way that does not serve Israeli interests.
Wrong bet and political isolation
In a parallel context, sources revealed previous reservations within the security establishment regarding what they described as excessive reliance on US President Donald Trump, warning of the fluctuation of his positions and the possibility of his policies changing suddenly.
According to these estimates, Prime Minister Netanyahu did not take these warnings into account, which reflects a defect in assessing the political dangers.
It also indicated the presence of influences within the American administration that may not be consistent with Israeli trends, with some officials questioning the extent of Trump’s knowledge of the details of the proposed understandings.
An Israeli security source added to Maariv newspaper, “There is no doubt that there are parties inside the White House that influence the course of matters. If you ask me, I very much doubt that President Trump knows the true details of the agreement. Yesterday he was celebrating his eightieth birthday, and who knows whether he has seen the terms of the agreement or whether his mind was elsewhere.”
Meanwhile, informed sources speak of the increasing isolation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within decision-making circles, following the departure of the last man he relied on a few days ago, namely Military Secretary Major General Roman Goffman, who was appointed head of the Mossad, in addition to key figures who were playing influential advisory roles, which may weaken his ability to manage complex files at this sensitive stage.
Fears of new tactics
On the ground, military assessments indicate the imposition of operational restrictions on the activity of the Israeli army in Beirut and certain areas inside Lebanon, while Tel Aviv confirms its adherence to the right to respond and defend its sovereignty.
In this context, the military establishment is preparing for the possibility of Hezbollah turning to guerrilla warfare, by intensifying the use of explosive devices in areas where Israeli forces are deployed, while reducing reliance in the first stage on anti-armor missiles and drones.
These estimates believe that the goal of this tactic is to inflict human losses on the Israeli forces without a widespread escalation, thus exacerbating the internal pressure on the Israeli government and limiting its ability to respond extensively under the cover of international legitimacy.
On the other hand, the security establishment – according to Maariv – is awaiting the outcome of the upcoming agreement, which is likely to include field arrangements that allow the Israeli army to remain within the yellow line within Lebanese territory to practice what is known as forward defense, while continuing to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
It also expressed fear of possible pressure for the US administration to impose an Israeli withdrawal within a specific period, amid doubts about the ability of the political leadership to resist these pressures or amend the terms of the agreement with Iran to serve security interests.
Calls to change course
In light of these challenges, and to get out of this political impasse, security officials in Israel believe it is necessary to take the following steps:
- Making a radical shift in the management of the political file, by raising the level of representation in negotiations, to be at the level of the prime minister and sovereign ministers and not low-ranking employees.
- Seeking a comprehensive strategic agreement that guarantees Israel’s vital interests.
- Exploiting international and regional momentum to advance major economic projects, most notably gas pipelines and energy transfer from the Arabian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea via Israel.
- Expanding the scope of normalization agreements to include more Gulf countries, as part of a comprehensive approach to getting out of the current crisis.
