Between Obama’s legacy and Biden’s trap.. The Iran agreement puts Trump facing an internal battle | policy

aljazeera.net
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The Financial Times said that the agreement reached by US President Donald Trump with Iran not only ends a war that lasted nearly 4 months, but also ignites a new confrontation on the home front, after the war left political divisions and economic burdens that may be difficult to overcome before the upcoming midterm elections.

The newspaper believes that Trump did not have many political options, as he was forced to accept a settlement with Tehran after he backed down from more escalatory options, including controlling Khark Island, the main Iranian oil export center in the Gulf.

According to the newspaper, the agreement did not result in the “unconditional surrender” that Trump raised when he launched the war on February 28, noting that the American president is now seeking to present the agreement as a diplomatic achievement that paves the way for a new phase of regional stability.

She adds that Trump will try to exploit the agreement politically during his participation in the G7 summit in France, by portraying it as a geopolitical victory that Republicans can build on as the next November elections approach.

Economic repercussions and partisan division

But the newspaper confirms that the war was unpopular with a large segment of Americans, after it contributed to rising inflation rates and fuel prices to levels approaching those that prevailed during the term of former President Joe Biden, an issue that Trump had pledged to address.

The conflict also led to a division within the Republican Party between a faction that rejects foreign military interventions and considers the war a betrayal of Trump’s electoral promises, and a hard-line wing that demanded continued military pressure until Iran is completely defeated.

In this context, the newspaper quoted Republican Senator Lindsey Graham as saying that he is following the course of the upcoming negotiations with concern, expressing concerns that there is a gap between what Iran believes about the agreement and what the US administration confirms.

Conservative figures also called for the agreement to be presented to Congress to be subjected to a careful review before proceeding with its implementation.

The newspaper points out that the most sensitive issues, most notably the Iranian nuclear program, have not yet been resolved, but have been postponed to additional negotiations extending for 60 days, which means that any failure to reach a final understanding may put pressure on Trump to resume military operations.

Potential political burden

On the other hand, if Iran adheres to the agreement, the American president will find himself forced to defend a settlement similar in some aspects to the nuclear agreement concluded by former President Barack Obama, which Trump always strongly attacked before he withdrew from it in 2018.

The newspaper notes that the biggest challenge facing Trump during the war was economic, as the annual inflation rate rose from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May, while the average price of gasoline rose to $4.07 per gallon compared to $3.13 a year ago.

Despite the steadfastness of the labor market and the relative recovery of stock markets, the cost of borrowing also rose with the rise in long-term US Treasury bond yields.

The Financial Times concludes that the success of the agreement will depend on the extent of its steadfastness on the ground in the coming days, and on the ability of the American administration to translate the ceasefire into permanent stability, because any setback may return Trump to square one and turn the external settlement into a long-term internal political burden.



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