Published On 2/5/2026
The Israeli bombing of southern Lebanon is no longer limited to the border area, but has expanded to include the city of Nabatieh, north of the Litani River, at a depth approaching 40 kilometers from the Blue Line. This expansion reflects a strategic shift in the nature of operations, as the occupation has come to rely on comprehensive aerial bombardment instead of ground advances.
According to the military and strategic expert, Brigadier General Nidal Abu Zeid, the main reason behind this expansion is intelligence data that confirms the continued presence of Hezbollah elements in most areas of southern Lebanon.
Abu Zeid adds – during the military analysis section – that the occupation was forced to use “fire instead of forces,” which reflects a clear inability to employ ground force, especially with the successive withdrawals from regular brigades, most notably the 162nd Armored Division, the 146th Armored Division, and the 91st Division.
The military expert also confirms that Hezbollah has radically changed its combat tactics, as it no longer relies on clinging to the front edge of the battle area as it was before.
Abu Zeid describes this method as “regressive fighting”, based on exhausting the enemy’s forces through combat nodes deployed near the yellow line, then withdrawing to the rear areas, which expanded the theater of operations and gave Hezbollah a geographical scope to expand towards the north of the Litani.
He believes that the repeated Israeli warnings to nine villages in the Nabatieh district indicate that the occupation has begun to talk about a new “red zone” after it was focusing on the blue and yellow lines.
The roughness of the land
Abu Zeid attributes this development to the rugged nature of the land, full of valleys, caves, and rising heights to the east, which the occupation intelligence believes have become hideouts and logistical support areas for Hezbollah forces south of the Litani.
On the other hand, the military expert points to indications of Israeli exaggeration in aerial bombardment operations, as the occupation began to rely on winged drones instead of helicopters.
This shift is explained by the presence of intelligence information indicating that Hezbollah possesses Iranian-made “Charter 1”, “Charter 2”, and “Charter 3” missiles, in addition to the Soviet “Strela 1” missile, which are shoulder-fired missiles that operate with thermal systems (Infra Red) and have a range of 2.5-3.5 kilometers, which constitutes a direct threat to Israeli helicopters, and a Hermes plane was previously shot down. 450.
At the strategic level, the military expert confirms that the Israeli occupation is experiencing a “strategic trap” on the Lebanese front.
Abu Zaid details this trap in 3 dimensions:
- First, the inability to advance due to the difficulty of movement of mechanized forces in the rugged nature of southern Lebanon and the exposure of armor to Hezbollah missiles.
- Secondly, the inability to withdraw, as this would be interpreted as an admission of defeat.
- Third, the occupation relies mainly on infantry from the Givati Brigade and the Golani Brigade, which explains the high casualties among their ranks, according to data from the occupation Ministry of Defense.
Abu Zeid summarizes the scene by saying that the occupation seeks to strip Hezbollah of air sovereignty, but the rugged terrain and advanced missiles limit achieving this goal.
