Published on 4/30/2026
Israeli assessments and new Iranian statements intersect at a direct conclusion after the ceasefire in Iran, which is that Tehran was damaged but not defeated, but rather emerged with a growing sense of victory, according to a senior Iranian official.
While Tehran asserts its ability to circumvent the blockade and the difficulty of repeating its previous nuclear offers, an Israeli security institute believes that the Iranian regime has maintained its cohesion, warning that the war may increase Iran’s motivation towards seeking to possess a nuclear weapon.
Read also
list of 2 itemsend of list
Decreased maneuvering space
The Washington Post quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that members of the Iranian security establishment believe that they “emerged victorious” from the war, and do not support giving up their positions on major issues, such as the country’s right to enrich uranium.
The official explained that during the first round of talks with the United States in Islamabad, negotiators had more room to maneuver.
He pointed out that when the chief Iranian negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, arrived, he had full powers to make a “confidence-building” offer, which represented a suspension of uranium enrichment for a period not exceeding 5 years.
But after the failure of those talks and the imposition of the US blockade on Iranian ports, “officials yielded to pressure from military and political hardliners to reduce the priority of negotiations with Washington,” according to the official.
The official stressed that the military forces “do not want to lose their achievements,” adding: “What the United States could have gained in those talks, it cannot win again, and it will be very difficult for Ghalibaf to make a similar offer again.”
On the economic level, the Iranian official did not deny the impact of the naval blockade, but he asserted that he would not force his country to surrender, saying: “We have experts in evading sanctions and we will find a solution.”
Nuclear logic and “most extreme” leadership
In parallel with this Iranian narrative, a report issued by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) concluded that Iran “was damaged during the war but was not defeated.”
The institute indicated that Tehran’s ability to withstand a joint American-Israeli attack may enhance its sense of strength and victory, making it difficult to exert effective pressure on it in the future to stop it.
The Israeli report ruled out the fall of the regime, stressing that “at this stage there is no indication that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse.”
On the contrary, the report added that despite the blows it received, the regime “under more extreme leadership” was able to maintain its control and leadership capabilities until the ceasefire, without monitoring any divisions or gaps in the political elite, led by the Revolutionary Guard, the Basij forces, and the internal security forces.
At the conclusion of its assessment, the Israeli Institute warned that Iran’s motivation towards possessing nuclear weapons is expected to increase, “in light of Tehran’s continued failure to deter its enemies from launching attacks using conventional capabilities and through its regional proxies.”
The Israeli report concluded that the war may reinforce the “strategic logic” behind Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, as a guarantee of the regime’s survival or as a deterrent against future attacks.
On April 13, the US naval blockade began on shipping traffic to and from Iranian ports.
The United States and Israel began a war against Iran on February 28, and the latter responded by launching attacks on Israel and against what it said were American sites and interests in the countries of the region, before Washington and Tehran announced on April 8 a temporary truce with Pakistani mediation.
On April 11, Pakistan hosted a round of talks between the two parties that did not lead to an agreement. On the 21st of the same month, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the truce at a Pakistani request without specifying a time limit.
