The day the features of the planet change.. What will your life look like in the year 2050? | sciences

In climate studies, there have always been two main points in time that scientists rely on to predict what will happen to the world in the context of accelerating temperature rise: the first is the middle of the century around the year 2050, and the second is by its end, in the year 2100.

These pictures that scientists create for these periods are not a fixed prophecy, but rather ranges of possibility that change depending on what humans are doing now, but the general trend is clear: by 2050 the world will be warmer, seas will be higher, heat waves will be more violent, and disasters related to water, fire, and drought will be more likely to occur.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the average global surface temperature in mid-century, compared to the pre-industrial level, could be in the range of 1.6 to 1.7 degrees Celsius in optimistic scenarios with strong emission reductions, about 2 degrees Celsius in an average scenario, and about 2.4 degrees Celsius in high-emissions scenarios.

These are average global numbers, but in reality the land is warming more than the oceans, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the global average, and some arid and semi-arid regions may feel the warming much harsher than the simple global figure.

Sea level

One of the clearest indicators of major changes in 2050 is sea level rise. According to estimates by the International Panel on Climate Change, global average sea level may rise by 2050 by about 15 to 23 centimeters compared to the period between 1995 and 2014 in the very low emissions scenario, and by about 20 to 29 centimeters in the very high emissions scenario. If this is compared to the level of approximately 1900, we are facing a total rise of approximately 31 to 45 cm.

These numbers may seem small at first glance, but they are sufficient to turn once-rare floods into recurring events, especially when high tides combine with storms, intense rains, and land subsidence in some deltas and coastal cities. In this context, coastal danger will not be distributed evenly, as the most sensitive areas are low-lying deltas, crowded coastal cities, and small islands.

Coastal elevation studies indicate that Asian countries such as China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Japan contain a large proportion of the population that is at risk in the future of inundation or recurrent coastal flooding.

In the Arab world, the Nile Delta, the coasts of Alexandria, Port Said, and the Arabian Gulf stand out as places that need accurate local calculations, because the danger does not come from the sea alone, but rather from the combination of sea rise, land subsidence, erosion, coastal construction, and the infrastructure’s ability to drain and protect.

An exceptional thermal event

As for heat waves, they are the most visible aspect of climate change in people’s lives, as a report by the International Panel on Climate Change shows that heat waves that used to occur once every ten years in a pre-industrial climate have become more frequent today, and with a warming of two degrees Celsius, they may occur about 5 to 6 times during each decade, not just once.

A rare thermal event that used to occur once every fifty years, involving an exceptionally intense heat wave, at 2 degrees Celsius may become approximately 14 times more frequent.

Moreover, not only the frequency increases, but also the intensity, with the event itself becoming about two to three degrees hotter than it was in the ancient climate.

This means that many cities will experience a different summer, as cities amplify the heat due to asphalt, concrete, lack of vegetation, and what is known as the urban heat island. Therefore, Cairo, Baghdad, Riyadh, Karachi, Delhi, Lahore, Mediterranean basin cities, and southern European cities will be examples of places where heat waves may become a daily test of public health, energy and work.

The danger is not only related to the temperature announced in the weather forecast, but also to the humid temperature, humidity, and night temperature. When the night is not cold enough, the body loses the opportunity to recover, and the dangers of heat stress increase, especially for the elderly, outdoor workers, and heart and diabetes patients.

Floods again

In this context, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, which is why extreme rainfall increases in many areas, and thus the risk of flash and urban floods increases when large amounts of rain fall in a short time, exceeding the capacity of drains, rivers and infrastructure.

These risks appear clearly in many regions of Asia, North America, and Europe, with high confidence in increased heavy rainfall in most land areas. South Asia and Southeast Asia may be among the most exposed regions due to the combination of monsoon winds and high population density.

Cities in Europe and North America may also experience more severe urban flooding, not necessarily because all of the annual rain will increase, but because a greater proportion of it may fall in short, violent storms.

Drought, on the other hand, will be the other side of the coin. In regions such as the Mediterranean Basin, western North America, parts of Central and South America, southern Africa, Madagascar, and eastern and southern Australia, the IPCC report predicts an increase in agricultural and environmental drought at warming levels of around 2 degrees Celsius.

Drought here does not only mean a lack of rain, but a lack of soil moisture due to high temperatures and increased evaporation. Therefore, the soil may dry out even in places where rain does not decrease much, because warmer air draws water from the ground and plants more quickly.

This is a critical point for agriculture, as the middle of the century may witness increasing pressure on wheat, maize and rice in hot or semi-arid regions, especially if heat waves coincide with sensitive stages of crop growth.

The need for irrigation will also increase at a time when water itself becomes more scarce, and in the Mediterranean Basin in particular, a number of reports predict that warming will be faster than the global average, and that periods of drought and the risk of water shortages will increase, making the region one of the climate “hotspots”.

Compound events

As for forest fires, they will be affected by the combination of heat, drought, wind, and land use change. Estimates from the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization indicate that extreme fires may increase globally by about 30% by 2050, and by about 50% by the end of the century.

This does not mean that every place will burn more to the same degree. Rather, “fire weather,” that is, hot, dry, windy days, will become more suitable for the outbreak of large fires in regions such as western North America, southern Europe, the Mediterranean basin, Australia, parts of the Amazon and Indonesia, and even northern and polar regions that are not accustomed to this type of danger.

But the most important and most dangerous compared to the above is that disasters will not come separately. The most dangerous thing in the climate of 2050 is the compound events, that is, a heat wave coinciding with a drought, or a drought followed by a fire, or a coastal storm with a rising sea, or intense rains over a poorly drained city, or a crop failure in more than one food-producing area in the same season.

The probability of complex events increases with every additional half degree of warming, so apparently small differences, such as 1.5, 2, or 2.5 degrees, become in reality large differences, represented in the number of dangerous days, the pressure on hospitals, the cost of insurance, food prices, and the ability of cities to function.