Will America end its direct aid to Israel? | news

In a remarkable shift in the nature of the military relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv, and in the midst of a fragile regional truce, the Jerusalem Post newspaper revealed anticipated talks that may lead to a gradual end to US military aid to Israel, in exchange for moving to a joint defense partnership.

The newspaper said that these crucial talks are likely to begin soon, during next May, and will focus on gradually ending US military aid to Israel, in exchange for funding directed towards a joint defense partnership instead.

These talks, which come in a tense regional context in light of the faltering negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which may be blocked by US President Donald Trump’s promise to strike Iran again, will shape the future partnership with Israel for a decade or more.

While the traditional goal of American aid to Tel Aviv was to ensure the flow of support in terms of equipment and weapons to maintain its superiority in the region, the newspaper indicates a shift in the nature of this support, from the logic of direct financing to burden-sharing in defense projects.

What are the topics of the upcoming talks?

According to the newspaper, one of the most important axes of negotiation in the talks on the future of US-Israeli military cooperation will be determining a timetable and areas of cooperation in joint military and technological projects during the transition from support to partnership.

The newspaper quoted Israeli officials as saying that laser air defense and new defense systems against threats such as hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence may all be on the list of joint projects that will be funded by both sides.

The newspaper indicated that American and Israeli officials had previously discussed the possibility of developing joint projects that include quantum computing and space technologies for offensive, defensive and intelligence uses, as well as robotics technology.

Who will participate in the negotiations?

The Jerusalem Post revealed that these negotiations will not only be technical, but will bring together senior decision-makers in the two countries. On the Israeli side, prominent defense, political and financial officials will participate, including Director General of the Ministry of Defense Amir Baram, Ambassador to Washington Michael Leiter, along with representatives of the army and the National Security Council.

As for the American side, the delegation will include figures of the highest level, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his advisor Michael Needham, in addition to the US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, according to what was reported by the Calcalist newspaper.

What is the context of the upcoming talks?

These talks come in a fragile regional context, represented by an unstable truce with Iran, despite Pakistani mediation that has not led to a settlement so far. This also coincides with a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, in light of the continuing Israeli violations and attacks in the south, and intermittent responses from Hezbollah, which increases the severity of military attrition and puts pressure on Israel’s stockpile of weapons.

The anticipated talks also come in light of mounting Democratic pressure in the US Senate to stop or disrupt the passage of arms deals directed to Israel. In this context, the Jerusalem Post reported that 40 out of 47 Democratic representatives in the Council recently voted in favor of blocking a number of arms sales deals to Israel.

This came after the decision of the administration of former US President Joe Biden in May 2024 to partially freeze arms sales to Israel in protest against the Israeli army’s invasion of Rafah.

This also comes in the wake of the opposition of the vast majority of Democrats to the joint war between Israel and the United States against Iran, which began on February 28 without official approval from Congress.

The rejection of continued American military support directed to Israel also enjoys the support of a growing segment within the Republican Party, which in turn is calling for a reconsideration or reduction of the amount of this aid, according to the newspaper.

Influences on the Israeli front?

Observers believe that any transition from the direct military aid model to a defense partnership based on joint financing and mutual technologies may impose complex strategic challenges on Israel, most notably the restructuring of its traditional dependence on American support.

According to what the newspaper reported, the Israeli front is witnessing widespread discussions about the availability of sufficient financial resources to compensate for any possible decline in the volume of American military aid.

According to the newspaper, some officials and experts fear that this reduction, if adopted, will create a tangible financial and military gap that may affect the pace of modernization of the defense system and Israel’s ability to finance its arsenal.

It is still unclear, according to the newspaper, how, for example, Israel will maintain its regional air superiority if a future American administration refuses to continue selling F-35 aircraft to it.

In general, the Israeli defense budget rose after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023, to 144 billion shekels (about 40 billion US dollars), after it had increased by tens of billions since the beginning of 2026.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a plan to add about 35 billion shekels annually (about 10 billion dollars) to the defense budget, with a special focus on enhancing Israel’s ability to produce various munitions and achieving a greater degree of military independence.

The last memorandum of understanding for US-Israeli military cooperation was signed in 2016 during the transitional period of US President Barack Obama’s administration, providing Israel with $38 billion over 10 years.