Published On 4/28/2026
The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the “OPEC Plus” alliance, in a development that comes in the context of widespread disturbances in global energy markets as a result of the war in Iran, and tensions related to shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
This decision puts an end to a decades-long process within OPEC, as the UAE’s production policies were linked to global market developments, in addition to internal shifts in production capacity and investments, which gradually led to discrepancies in vision with the supply management mechanisms within the “OPEC Plus” alliance.
Historical roots
The UAE’s relationship with OPEC goes back to 1967, when the Emirate of Abu Dhabi joined the organization, before the union was established in 1971, according to what the American Associated Press indicated. Since that time, the UAE has become part of the Gulf bloc within the organization alongside Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, a group that played an influential role in drawing up production policies.
During the 1970s and 1980s, the UAE participated in the supply management policies adopted by OPEC in response to global demand shocks and price fluctuations, while relying on mechanisms to reduce and raise production to achieve balance. In the following decades, as its production capabilities expanded, its presence within the collective framework of the organization continued, with relatively high levels of commitment to production quotas recorded, according to OPEC’s annual reports.
Huge oil production
The UAE is ranked among the largest oil producers at the global level, and according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the country ranked seventh globally in the production of petroleum liquids during the year 2022, and ranked third within OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
The UAE’s production in recent years has ranged between 3 and 3.5 million barrels per day, with changes recorded related to the “OPEC Plus” agreements and market conditions, including periods of reducing or increasing production within collective arrangements within the bloc.
The Energy Information Administration indicates that the UAE is classified among the countries that possess surplus production capacity that can be used during periods of global supply shortages, an element related to the role of some producers within OPEC in dealing with market fluctuations, especially during geopolitical crises.
Growing production capacity
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), affiliated with the Abu Dhabi government, is implementing expansion plans aimed at raising production capacity to about 5 million barrels per day by 2027, according to company data. The US Energy Information Administration estimates the UAE’s current capacity at between 4.3 and 4.5 million barrels per day, with limited variation in technical estimates.
These numbers indicate that there is a gap between the available production capacity and the actual production levels within the “OPEC Plus” agreements, which has been the focus of discussion within the alliance in recent years. According to previous reports by Reuters, the UAE raised the issue of amending the production baselines, which are used to determine countries’ quotas, in line with their growing production capabilities.
The UAE is within “OPEC Plus”
The UAE has participated in the OPEC Plus agreements since the alliance was established in 2016, with periodic adjustments to production levels. The Energy Information Administration explains that the UAE’s production ceiling reached about 3.22 million barrels per day during the year 2024, compared to about 3.02 million barrels per day in 2023.
These amendments reflect attempts to achieve a balance between managing supply within the alliance and the productive capabilities of member states, in light of continuous changes in the market.
Reserves and exports
The UAE relies on a large oil resource base, as the US Energy Information Administration estimated proven reserves at about 111 billion barrels at the beginning of 2023, which places it seventh in the world in terms of the size of reserves.
These reserves are concentrated in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, which represents the main center of production and investment in the sector. Production expansion plans are linked to this resource base, which forms the basis of long-term policies in the energy sector.
The UAE is a major exporter of crude oil and condensates, and according to an analysis by the Energy Information Administration, its average exports reached about 2.6 million barrels per day between 2013 and 2022.
These exports are mainly directed to Asian markets, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea, according to OPEC data, which reflects the structure of global demand for oil over the past two decades.
ADNOC data indicates that the export infrastructure includes facilities in the port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, which provides an additional route for exports in light of the geopolitical tensions associated with the Strait.
Structure of the oil sector
The UAE’s oil sector is based on an industrial system led by ADNOC, which was founded in 1971 and manages exploration, production, refining and transportation activities.
The most prominent entities affiliated with the Emirati company include the following:
- ADNOC Onshore, which operates a number of major oil fields.
- ADNOC Offshore is responsible for the development and production of offshore fields.
- ADNOC Drilling, which carries out drilling operations and related services.
This system covers the various stages of the value chain in the oil sector, according to company data.
