Published On 4/27/2026
Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the National Research University, Vasily Kashin, addressed the role of military space capabilities in armed conflicts, stressing that the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the American-Israeli war on Iran, showed that this field has become a decisive factor in determining the comprehensive military capabilities of countries.
In an article published on the website of the Russian Council for International Affairs, Kashin believes that the importance of this factor is likely to increase with the rapid growth in space reconnaissance capabilities, and with the development of artificial intelligence and space electronics, which will raise targeting capabilities from space, increase the fragility of the command and control systems and the armed forces, as well as the components of nuclear deterrence, and raise the possibility of a fatal or disarmament strike.
New challenges
Kashin points out that military development in the 21st century will be largely focused on two tasks: enhancing the country’s military space potential, and neutralizing the opponent’s potential in this area.
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The writer explained that the use of space, even without direct offensive systems, changed the nature of combat operations and the balance of power, and rearranged the military value of the various branches of forces. He gave an example of this with the decline in the value of the surface fleet and the reduction of the effectiveness of combat aviation, because the opponent became able to monitor bases in almost real time, and monitor the locations of aircraft with great accuracy.
The writer pointed out that Ukraine receives immediate alerts from its allies about the take-off of Russian bombers, which greatly affects their effectiveness, which, in his opinion, requires equipping airports located within the range of missiles and drones with aircraft shelters.
This reality requires – according to the writer – the operation of aircraft from bases farther from the enemy, which reduces their effectiveness, which is what he says Russia was forced to do in its war with Ukraine, just as the United States was forced to do in its war with Iran.
The writer also pointed out that during the war on Iran, Washington realized that Tehran might receive satellite reconnaissance data from Russia, so it sought to keep its surface ships out of the range of Iranian anti-ship missile systems.
And this –According to Kashin-Ma This explains the inability of the most powerful naval power in the world to ensure the safety of navigation Strait of HormuzAnd the resulting serious strategic consequences.
From escalation to wars of attrition
Kashin asserts that the military space capabilities provided to Ukraine by the West, along with forward-looking drones, were the main factor in pushing the conflict with Russia towards a war of attrition.
As for the American-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran’s strikes have become more accurate thanks to the possibility of obtaining space reconnaissance data from another country.
As a result, according to the author, the Iranians were able to hit sensitive military targets, including THAAD system radars, AWACS aircraft, and airport fuel tanks. This factor may also have played an important role in the United States’ failure to forcefully open the Strait of Hormuz.
Legal vacuum
The author points out that international law does not directly regulate this type of action, which makes it difficult for an adversary to justify a retaliatory strike against satellite systems, unlike traditional forms of “proxy war.”
Hence, Kashin believes that the world is facing a new phase of “proxy wars”, launched by space powers against weaker countries in this field, in parallel with an accelerated development in space reconnaissance systems, and with a boom in artificial intelligence capable of integrating data from multiple sources and processing it in real time.
Kashin concluded that maintaining Russia’s position in international politics required making building space capabilities – both military and civilian – a strategic priority, just as heavy industry was a priority for the Soviet Union in the 1930s.
