The European Union intends to increase dependence on electricity by 2040 | economy

The European Union intends to propose a new goal to increase reliance on electricity for energy consumption by 2040, as part of a broader plan to reduce oil and gas consumption and strengthen the market for clean technologies within the bloc, according to what Bloomberg reported from a draft document of the European Commission.

The Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, is scheduled to unveil the plan on July 17, and will subsequently seek to include the “electrification” goal in legislation within the post-2030 energy framework during the last quarter of the year, according to the draft, which indicated that the goal will be formulated as a percentage of energy consumption by 2040, without specifying this percentage yet.

Bet on clean electricity

Brussels is betting that increasing reliance on locally produced electricity from clean sources not only serves climate goals, but also enhances European energy security, after the Russian war on Ukraine revealed the fragility of the continent’s dependence on gas imports, before the Middle East crises added a new layer of risks to global energy markets.

According to the draft, part of which was reported by Bloomberg, accelerating electrification may allow Europe to compensate for two-thirds of gas demand, reduce oil consumption by half, and reduce the bill for fossil fuel imports by about 200 billion euros (about 228 billion dollars) until the end of the next decade, which may also help curb high energy prices that put pressure on the competitiveness of European companies.

This plan is based on a broader climate goal approved by the European Union, which last March adopted a binding target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, in preparation for reaching climate neutrality in 2050.

The European Commission says that electricity currently represents only 23% of the final energy consumption in the Union, although renewable energy sources constituted 47.5% of the total electricity consumed in 2024. Its plan for affordable energy and the Clean Industrial Deal also set a reference for raising the share of electricity in final consumption to 32% by 2030.

Eurostat data show that 48% of the electricity produced in the European Union during 2024 came from renewable sources, and 23% from nuclear plants, compared to 28% from fossil fuels, which gives Brussels a low-carbon electricity production base that it wants to expand its use in transportation, buildings and industry.

Import invoice

The electrification plan also reflects a European attempt to reduce exposure to abroad. In 2024, the European Union’s dependence on energy imports reached 57%, meaning that about 60% of its energy needs were met through net imports.

Oil products and derivatives were the largest item in European energy imports, with a share of 67%, followed by natural gas imports, with a share of 24%.

In the final energy consumption within the Union, petroleum products represented 37% in 2024, then electricity 23%, and natural gas and factories 20%, which explains the focus of the draft on replacing fossil fuels with electricity in daily and industrial uses.

The plan targets sectors that are most dependent on fossil fuels. In transportation, the Commission wants to improve access to the charging infrastructure for cars and electric vehicles, accelerate the electrification of heavy vehicles, and encourage ports to transform into clean energy centers. In industry, Brussels intends to make targeted use of funds linked to carbon markets to push companies towards clean electricity.

As for buildings, the Commission is considering measures to stimulate public demand for heat pumps, a pivotal point because buildings are responsible for about 40% of energy consumption in the European Union, more than half of gas consumption, and 35% of energy-related emissions.

But implementing the plan faces major obstacles, most notably the initial cost of transformation, modernizing electricity networks, and expanding production and storage capabilities. The Commission estimated that European electricity networks need investments amounting to 584 billion euros ($666 billion) during the current decade, at a time when it indicates that about 40% of distribution networks in Europe are more than 40 years old and need modernization.

The Commission expects electricity consumption in the European Union to increase by about 60% by 2030, driven by the expansion of clean mobility, electric heating and cooling, industrial electrification, and low-carbon hydrogen production, which makes the modernization of networks a prerequisite for transforming the electrification goal from a policy document into an actual transformation of the European economy.