Published on 6/29/2026
|
Last update: 16:10 (Mecca time)
Fears are rising that the Sudanese city of El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, is on the cusp of a fate similar to what El Fasher witnessed, with the Rapid Support Forces intensifying their air attacks and deploying military reinforcements around the city, in a scene reminiscent of what preceded the attack on El Fasher in North Darfur at the end of last year.
Since the drone attacks caused the shutdown of electricity, fuel, and water stations, daily life in El-Obeid has become a battle for survival. In recent weeks, the Rapid Support Forces have intensified their targeting of civilian infrastructure, electricity and fuel facilities, and the highway leading out of the city, in parallel with reinforcements reminiscent of the scenes of El-Fasher, which United Nations experts said the attack on bore the features of genocide.
Strategic location
Al-Obeid, with an indigenous population of about half a million people and housing nearly 100,000 displaced people, is of strategic importance, as it is located on a vital road linking Darfur, which is under the control of the Rapid Support Forces in the west, with the army-controlled areas in central and eastern Sudan.
The city includes an army infantry division, an air base, a major oil pipeline and a large gum arabic market.
According to Sudanese affairs researcher Kholoud Khair, controlling El Obeid is related to “power, land, and money,” and she believes that many residents have become effectively “besieged,” with water prices doubling and food costs rising by up to 300%.
“Many did not leave because they did not have the money or because they did not know where to go,” she said. Analysts believe that the fall of the city would strengthen the RSF’s grip on western Sudan, and perhaps pave the way for an advance toward the capital.
Nihad Al-Tayeb, a researcher at the Armed Conflict Data, Locations and Events Project (ACLED), says that military movements of the Rapid Support Forces were monitored during the past month about 60 kilometers east, south and west of Al-Obeid.
A water crisis and siege looms on the horizon
In Al-Rahmaniyah camp on the outskirts of the city, about 200 families are crowded into flimsy shelters made of straw and torn fabric.
Qasim Muhammad (35 years old), who lives with her seven children, told Agence France-Presse that she travels long distances to fetch turbid water, saying: “We walk long distances and carry water on our heads, and it is already unfit for drinking,” adding: “We do not have any aid. We need water and food.”
In a nearby tent, Wasila Muhammad (70 years old) says: “We have nothing. No water, no food, no mattresses.”
Aid supplies dwindled due to the blocking of roads and the destruction of infrastructure, until one volunteer asserted that “needs exceed supplies.”
Last week, the UN Security Council expressed its concern about the rapid mobilization of large military reinforcements around El Obeid, warning of imminent “mass atrocities.”
Muhammad Refaat, from the International Organization for Migration, warned that the city is approaching a comprehensive siege that will make civilians “soon unable to safely exit or return safely,” suggesting that the conditions “within weeks” will match what El Fasher witnessed, as United Nations estimates indicate that more than 6,000 people were killed in the first three days of its fall.
On the other hand, a government source reported that the army tried to slow down the progress of the Rapid Support and destroyed its equipment. A source close to the Rapid Support accused the army of using civilians as “human shields.”
The political path faltered
These developments on the ground come while political efforts are faltering. The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied on Saturday what was reported by the US President’s senior advisor, Massad Boulos, regarding the Transitional Sovereignty Council’s rejection of an American paper to end the war, describing his speech before the Security Council as “inaccurate,” and stressing that it dealt “constructively” with the proposal.
It referred to its signing of the Jeddah Declaration on May 11, 2023, and to an initiative it presented through the Security Council on December 22, 2025 to protect civilians.
Boulos had said that the Sovereignty Council had repeatedly rejected the truce proposal.
The United States and Saudi Arabia, through the International Quartet, which also includes Egypt and the UAE, are leading efforts to reach a humanitarian truce in a conflict that broke out on April 15, 2023, and resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands and the displacement of about 13 million people, according to UN and international estimates.
